Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) issued Q4 and full-year numbers on Tuesday. The competitor of Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) reported adjusted fourth-quarter revenues of $919 million, which was good for a 50% increase. Earnings per diluted share were $0.09 on an adjusted basis, also representing a 50% jump. For the full year, adjusted revenues jumped 30% to $4 billion and earnings per diluted share rose 36% to $1.06. Not too bad.
EA, according to Briefing.com, also beat Wall Street's expectations by quite a bit. EA was forecast to only break-even on a non-GAAP basis, so the difference was a nice $0.09. In terms of operational cash flow, EA increased the metric by 33% during the fourth quarter, but for the full year, operational cash flow decreased 15%. Ah, such is life, I guess. Nevertheless, EA produced 27 titles that sold over a million units this year -- three more than in the previous year. Fifteen of its titles sold over 2 million units -- five more than the last fiscal period. Titles such as Army of Two and Rock Band, as well as various sports franchises, drove the results.
Things sound pretty good, don't they? EA is definitely a major force on the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platforms. But EA has had some challenges during this console cycle, and there is the perception that it needs a major merger to combat the threat posed by the Activision and Vivendi Games transaction. And let's not forget that Activision is on fire all on its own. That's what the whole attempted takeover of Take-Two is all about.
Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) late Thursday reported a fourth-quarter profit that handily beat expectations as video games sales nearly doubled with strong demand for Guitar Hero 3 and Call of Duty 4 games. ATVI shares are up over 4.5% in premarket trading.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY) are about to face a generic threat from Swiss drug firm, Schweizerhall Holding, that said it's going to soon launch a generic version in Germany of Plavix blood-thinning drug.
Clear Channel (NYSE: CCU) reported its profit soared to $799.7 million or $1.61 per share in the first quarter while revenues rose 4% to $1.56 billion. The results beat expectation even when taken excluding one-time items that have earnings rising 70% to $161.4 million or 32 cents a share.
No matter how you slice it, whether you look at GAAP or non-GAAP statistics, Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) kicked it during the quarter. And I mean really kicked it.
Net sales for Q4 set off at warp factor 11, rising 93% to $602.5 million. Earnings per diluted share on a reported basis came in at $0.14, reversing a year-ago loss of $0.05 per share. For the full fiscal year, Activision grew revenues by 92% -- again, sales growth in the 90's! -- to $2.9 billion. Earnings per diluted share were $1.10 in 2008 versus a measly $0.28 in 2007. Take that, Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) and THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI)! Activision is truly taking advantage of consoles from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE), and Nintendo Co. Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY). Titles such as Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero, and Transformers drove the results -- like I always say, it's always about the quality of the slate. On an adjusted basis, earnings beat expectations by a whopping $0.12, according to Briefing.com.
I bet EA is really wishing its deal went through for Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) right about now! I believe Activision will continue to do well the rest of the year, and I love its fundamentals, but what about the stock? As of this writing, it's up about 3%. If you are looking to trade Activision, I'd probably wait until all the earnings excitement is over and be patient for pullbacks as the market may perceive that everything is priced in at the moment now that the news is out.
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
THQ's (NASDAQ: THQI) Q4 results were not good at all. Revenues were up over 8% to $187 million, but the software publisher lost an adjusted $0.37 per diluted share from continuing operations. Last year at this time, THQ generated positive adjusted net income of $0.13 per diluted share from continuing operations. The full fiscal year was no better -- revenues were basically flat at $1 billion. The company lost an adjusted $0.23 per diluted share from continuing operations during the year compared to an adjusted profit of $1.20 per diluted share from continuing operations in 2007.
This publisher is no Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) or Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) right now. Its slate is performing poorly, and the company's stock is likewise in the dumps. But what about the future? A few years back, THQ wasn't a bad investment decision. I have a feeling that THQ will rebound as the current console cycle continues its forward path, especially when further price cuts in hardware make their way to market.
THQ, however, needs to get its slate back on track, and to really go after the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 players. It seems to be doing OK with the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platform in terms of revenue mix. Perhaps the deal struck with DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) for a video game based on the animation company's 2010 feature MasterMind will help.
Nevertheless, there is nothing exciting in the earnings release, nothing that makes me think that THQ is out of the dark woods yet. Again, though, I would expect the publisher's stock to rebound in the future. Question is, how patient will investors be?
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
I really want to turn bullish on Midway Games Inc. (NYSE: MWY), but there's no way I can do that right now. The company's stock is below $3 a share, and it's there for a reason. But, let's first look at a couple positives from the software publisher's latest earnings release. Net revenues shot up 170% to $29.9 million in Q1; that beat expectations, according to Briefing.com. And the net loss per share also beat expectations by a penny -- it came in at $0.29 per diluted share on an adjusted analysis.
But, that net loss is worse than the previous year's net loss of $0.20 per diluted share, also adjusted. Like I say, someday I want to report that Midway has turned the corner and is a buy. I simply can't do that, even though I recently bought the publisher's catalog title Rampage: Total Destruction for the Nintendo Gamecube and am having a great time with it -- guess it goes to show that you can't always judge a company's stock by the fact that you enjoy its products. One thing that Midway needs to do is perhaps seek some synergy from Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA)'s MTV and Nickelodeon channels. Sumner Redstone is, after all, the controlling shareholder of Midway. Granted, THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI) deals with the Nickelodeon characters at the moment, but in the future, Redstone needs to figure out a way to use his media assets to promote Midway and perhaps funnel some licensing deals to the publisher. MTV is certainly doing well with its own video-game ambitions via Rock Band, which is sold by Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS).
One thing I must point out is that, since my last article about Midway, the stock is up. This was mentioned to me by a reader. So, in objective trading terms, if you went against my opinion, you would have made money, no question. However, I have to stick to my guns and say that I personally wouldn't play the volatility in Midway's shares. Yes, you could luck out with it, maybe Redstone will come along one day and buy out the remaining shares at a big premium (doubtful, at least the big-premium part). I wouldn't want to speculate on such an outcome; I am still content with my Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) shares as a way to play video-game investing.
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
Viacom (NYSE: VIA) issued its Q1 earnings results on Friday. The conglomerate seems to be doing all right with its strategy of leveraging content to drive growth. Revenues were up 15%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share jumped 29% to $0.44. But it can be seen that there's a dichotomy going on if you look into the performance of the two main operating segments: media networks saw its operating income rock up 15% while filmed entertainment tallied up an operating loss for the quarter. Even though that loss was narrowed by over 40%, I always get disappointed when I see a studio in the red -- it reminds me that the movie business is a risky, oftentimes low-return one.
But, should you be down on Viacom's movie business right now? Maybe not, since Paramount is currently distributing Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man -- seeSheldon Liber's recent article about the film. That should hopefully improve things going forward, as might Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Viacom also will be distributing Kung Fu Panda for DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA). Sumner Redstone is certainly counting on these projects to be huge. And speaking of huge, the company's Rock Band continues to fuel the media networks segment -- it's sold by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), and it is apparently holding its own against Activision's (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero. The synergies between MTV and the music system are obviously pushing this one. Maybe the studio should get in on the video-game action by greenlighting a movie based on Rock Band -- maybe Jack Black could star in it!
Overall, I think Viacom is performing as it should, and I hope the movie division can bring in some profits during the coming months (I think it will). As for the stock, I'd ideally like to see it a bit lower before I'd consider buying it.
Disclosure: I own shares of Activision and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
Corn Products International (NYSE: CPO) manufactures and markets food ingredients and industrial products derived from corn and other starch-based materials. Major offerings include sweeteners, corn oil, salad dressings, shortening, vitamins, corn gluten feed, food-grade starches and industrial starches. The firm operates manufacturing plants in the Americas, Africa and Asia, serving customers in the food, beverage, pharmaceutical, paper, textile, and brewing industries. Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) is a major competitor.
Investors were pleased last week, when the company reported fiscal Q1 EPS of 85 cents and revenues of $930.9 million. Analysts had been looking for 71 cents and $867.9 million. Net sales set a record, for the ninth consecutive quarter. The firm also guided FY08 EPS to $2.90-$3.10 ($2.87 consensus) and FY08 revenues to $4.0 billion ($3.78 billion consensus).
The theory makes sense. As the economy softens, Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo will cut the prices of their game consoles to keep sales volumes up. The CEO of game publisher Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) has stated as much.
According toReuters, "With the rising costs of fuel and food and housing, it is more difficult to go out and buy a $399 console, and I think it's going to put pressure on the console manufacturers to reduce their prices," Bobby Kotick said.
The problem presents a delicate balance for the console makers. Nintendo's stock has soared because of the popularity of the Wii. Microsoft just began to make money in its device division in the first quarter of the year. After a number of quarters of losses, it looks like the PS3 may start to contribute to the Sony P&L.
Holding prices may keep margins high, but drop unit sales.
There are two factors that work in favor of the console producers. The first is that, as their manufacturing volume has gone up, component prices have come down. That means if retail prices are lowered, the companies can still make money.
The other factor is that all three companies get licensing fees from each video game that is sold to run on its platform. With new offerings like Grand Theft Auto IV on the market, those fees should soften the blow of lowering hardware prices.
Watch for the price of game consoles to be dropped -- and soon.
So Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) is about to have one heck of a week. Tell me if I'm wrong, but I'm willing to bet everyone reading this knows that today is launch day for Grand Theft Auto IV on the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 consoles. And I'm sure there were many hardcore fans at Best Buy (NASDAQ: BBY) and GameStop (NYSE: GME) today, ready with cold-hard-cash in their hands to snag the software; in fact, this article talks about how some stores were open at midnight to satisfy the pent-up demand (remember, this title was delayed). And Douglas McIntyre discussed the game earlier today as being a potential barometer in terms of consumer confidence.
With all this incredible buzz, with the projection that GTA IV might move close to 10 million discs this year, should you be interested in taking on some Take-Two stock for your investment portfolio? The answer for me is no, Take-Two is not a buy here. Remember that we still have the whole arbitrage game going on with it since Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) wants to buy the publisher; also recall that Take-Two is gunning for a higher offer and purposely delayed further negotiations until after the release of GTA IV. I sold my position when the whole buyout offer was made a while ago, and I'm still glad that I did -- for me, the trade was over at that point, and I was happy to simply own my Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) shares.
I'd like to own Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY), but there are a couple things that bother me about the current chapter of its amazing story. First, let me take a look at a report about the video-game juggernaut's earnings.
According to The New York Times, Nintendo's profit number was one for the record books. Sales soared to the sky, rocketing 73% to over $16 billion. Net profit also went ballistic -- in a good way -- by about 48%, coming in at $2.5 billion. Yeah, the Wii console was a big driver, but don't forget that little handheld wonder called the Nintendo DS -- people sometimes miss that part of the tale, and they shouldn't. The DS sold over 30 million units on a global basis during the fiscal year, while the Wii sold over 18 million units. Yep, Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) still have something to worry about, as the Wii has taken the shine away from the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 360. The company's position in the current gaming cycle is strong, no question. And publishers like Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) all strive to be big supporters of Nintendo's systems.
Here are the problems, though, that I alluded to at the opening. First, as of this writing, the ADR's are, according to AOL Finance, priced at $71.14 (the ADR's don't change during the day on this quote system, as they update after the close; I'm seeing a current bid on my brokerage's quote system of $68.50, so the shares might possibly go lower tonight). This represents something of a recent run-up, so I'm not interested in chasing the stock at these levels (last time I was interested in Nintendo, there was a price drop). But, there could be a more pressing issue -- on an anecdotal level, in my area, the Wii's are currently plentiful. Has the system peaked? Hey, don't go by my anecdotal observations, but I'm just saying that, for me personally, buying Nintendo at this time is something I'd have to consider very, very carefully.
Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.
The video-game sales report for the month of March is in. The NPD Group, a market-research company, said that sales of hardware and software jumped 57% compared with March of last year, coming in at $1.7 billion. Hardware revenue grew 46%, while software sales leaped by 63%. One of the best analysts of the video-game sector, Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan, thought that software sales might increase 47% from last year.
That's okay, though -- video games certainly have the right, as well as the ability, to surprise to the upside, especially when Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) released the incomparable Super Smash Bros. Brawl for the Wii in March. I don't think there's one soul on the planet that didn't expect that title to be tops in March -- it sold 2.7 million units. Seriously, many gamers are addicted to this. I know one individual who still plays several rounds of smash-brawling antics twice a day! The title definitely drove Wii sales -- the console sold 67% more units in March than it did in the previous month.
The data continue to show that video gaming is hot, and that quality publishers such as Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) should be investigated as potential ideas on pullbacks. However, I think Nintendo is the bigger one to look at now since the Wii continues to do well and since it has an interesting putative catalyst coming up in May with the Wii Fit exercise system. Of course, you may just want to look right now. 'll like Nintendo's stock a whole lot better if it gets below $60 per share. No matter what, though, the company is still giving Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) a nice run for their collective money. With the DS, the Wii, Mario, etc. -- Nintendo certainly commands respect, I'll say.
Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.
Remember Motley Crue? They were a popular hair band in the 1980s, and they're still around today. In fact, in an effort to remain cool, the Crue will be releasing its new single on the Rock Band video game platform. Rock Band comes courtesy of Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA), the latter being the owner of developer Harmonix. It is also the competing music game to Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI)'s Guitar Hero franchise.
I'm an Activision shareholder, and I'm always watching for signs that the Guitar Hero phenomenon might be on its way out. No, I haven't seen any convincing ones yet, but since Reuters made a mention of this Crue deal, it caught my attention. As one might imagine, I would have preferred to have seen Crue release the song through Guitar Hero, but whatever, guys, have a blast with the competition! (Yeah, I'm not bitter or anything). The Crue will also be promoting Rock Band while it's on tour, according to this press release.
So, users will be able to download the song, called Saints of Los Angeles, via the online stores of Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT). I wish Motley Crue luck with its EA-Viacom hookup, but I prefer playing the current music-video-game trends via Guitar Hero through my Activision shares, which are currently trading well above my cost basis. The shares haven't done much lately, but I'm not ready to sell just yet... rock on, Activision!
Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.
NASDAQ has released its short interest for the end of March, with a March 31, 2008 cut off date. Overall short interest fell by a rate of some 1.2% on NASDAQ for the two-week period to 9,657,092,223. Interestingly enough, there were a few standouts that saw some major gains in short selling.
The percentage terms on Level 3 are not that great, but the raw number of shares is significant.
These were not the only gainers out there, but the bets against some of these rising short interest stocks were staggering. You can check NASDAQ short interest on any of these stocks or others at the NASDAQ Trader site dedicated to short interest.
THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) is not casual when it comes to casual gaming. What is casual gaming, you ask? It is a genre of videogaming for people who don't want to learn a bunch of button combos for a complex first-person shooter or don't possess the desire to spend fifty hours winding their way through a vast role-playing universe. And it just might be an important avenue of growth for the videogame industry, since it opens up new markets beyond the hardcore gamer. Publishers such as Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) know that casual-gaming strategies are important these days, as do console makers Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Sony (NYSE: SNE). Heck, Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) overall strategy is arguably completely casual in nature, considering the appeal of the Wii.
THQ announced the other day that it would buy Elephant Entertainment and enter into a publishing deal with Oberon Media. Both of these companies are purveyors of casual-gaming entertainment and they are meant to broaden the scope of THQ's offerings in this area. Expectations are for casual games to grow significantly over time.
It may be a smart thing for THQ to grow its casual-gaming business, but it needs to focus right now mostly on getting its main pipeline back in order. Recent delays for certain titles, as well as sagging sales of games that were supposed to do well, have caused THQ's stock to fall; in fact, THQ's recent quarter was kind of bad, in my opinion. So, yes, go after the casual market -- but remember the less-than-casual and hardcore players as well, as they are major drivers for the success of a gaming slate.
Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.
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